…because I like being right. What I’m right about is how the Science! is settled right up until people get a better good look at, well, just about anything. As I point out here, among many other places, it’s a safe bet that things anyone has only seen from hundreds of millions of miles away will look different when seen from ‘only’ a million miles away, or that something seen only through the then-current gizmos will look a lot different when seen through the latest and greatest gizmos.
It seems the JWST has seen things that do not comport well with current theory. While scientists may be shocked to imagine their precious theories are not exactly right, I sure am not.
The humor here, at least for me, and the single greatest cautionary tale for anyone ‘following the science’ is how stone cold certain scientists are about their theories right up until they’re overthrown, and then how those same scientists get just as certain of the new theories they’ve cooked up to explain the new observations. After a brief period of fluster, rarely is the shift from Theory A to Theory B even acknowledged to have taken place. Rather, a serene, confident calm descends on the field – of course our Theory B is right! Rince and repeat – this is the real history of science.*
So ‘we’ – a handful of astrophysicists and related experts – have these way-cool theories about how old the universe is, how it formed, what the rules must have been 13+ billion years ago. And oops! they don’t seem to cover the new observations. Step 1: tinker under the hood. Maybe we just need a slight tune-up here or there to make it all better. Step 2: if the tune-up doesn’t get it done, then move on to finding the one problem child in the current theory we need to modify. Step 3: come up with an effectively new theory. Step 4: however the earlier steps were resolved, act as if nothing really happened, and trumpet the modified or new theory as The Science with as much confidence and certainty as the old theory was until recently proclaimed.
The educated layman should note that these cosmological theories are exactly the kinds of theories ripe for overthrow: they have no practical applications and so will never get practically tested, they are based on observations of extremely distant phenomena using more or less sophisticated yet necessarily limited tools, they are Russian dolls of nested assumptions.
This last point bears expansion. To take one case: the redshift. The concept of a wavelength shift due to the relative motion of the source and receiver is solid, testable science. So the idea that stars and galaxies are moving relative to us because the light coming from them is redshifted (or blue-shifted) is sound – but it should be noted, one step removed from direct observation. Now lay on top of that stellar and galactic motion Hubble’s Law. This is the idea that speed corresponds to distance, such that the more redshifted the light from a galaxy appears to us, the farther away it is. Here’s the catch – Hubble’s Law is only testable through independent observation for a small subset of comparatively near objects. Exactly where this Law is most applied – very distant objects – it is least testable, as in usually completely untestable. But the entire edifice of current theory stands upon it.
Scientists then back into age: that object is far away from us (using Hubble’s Law) moving at some ‘known’ (through the redshift) speed, so math says that what we’re seeing is really old – it has taken some number of billions of years for the light to come to us from that distance.
Now, all of this is results from perfectly sound logic, and maybe it’s exactly right, but it should be kept in mind that it stands on a heck of a whole lot of assumptions not backed by tests or observations. The Andromeda Galaxy is approaching the Milky Way and will get here in about a billion years. ‘We’ (certain specialists) ‘know’ this, because ‘we’ ‘know’ the distance between the galaxies (using ‘Standard Candles‘, I think) and because of the blue shift in the spectrum of the Andromeda Galaxy as observed from earth. (If there is some other, independent, way to reach this conclusion, I am not aware of it. I’m not really very up-to-date on this stuff, so please correct me.)
All of this makes sense. But so does phlogiston, as does the idea that the Earth is stationary. More to the point, so does the idea that planets develop in pretty much the orbits we see them in today. Problem is, phlogiston isn’t real, the earth does move, and planets seem to form in one orbit and then get moved into other orbits or even get ejected from their systems of origin. The Music of the Spheres evidently modulates across any number of keys.
These are three – phlogiston, stationary earth, and formation of planets – of many examples where following the science meant accepting theories that have since been proven wrong. They all three make a lot of sense. All three have decent sized mountains of evidence in their favor. Yet all three have been overthrown by contrary evidence – evidence you needed better equipment, better logic, or both to obtain.
So, hurray for the Webb! I am and have long been a huge fan. It is exceeding my wildest hopes, so far, by making a lot of scientists sweat a little. I love cosmology because, being completely useless, it is almost completely apolitical. Also, being completely useless, it will never get tested by application, so will remain a Wild West of sorts as far as theorizing goes. What’s a decade or more late and 300+% cost overruns compared to this level of fun?
* as opposed to technology. Once science becomes applied, people really do gain a degree of confidence not available in ‘pure’ science. The melting point of iron is well-established, not so much by scientists but by the millions of technicians who routinely melt iron. We have reached this point of science applied to real-life challenges in many fields, such that the basic, useful facts of those fields are established with a high degree of confidence: chemistry, metallurgy, electronics, various engineering fields, and so on. But in many fields, the less cautious of the practitioners overreach: we really don’t know much about genetic engineering, not in the sense that a good engineer knows that his bridge will stand up, based on centuries of his peers building such bridges. Geneticists may be able to do a wide range of interesting things in a consistent and repeatable manner – but centuries of repeatable successes in the real world are still centuries out. And all this applied science is on way WAY firmer footing than anything a cosmologist or astrophysicist theorizes about.