I Hate Posting on This Stuff…

We need a little perspective here. I get the feeling that to most people numbers like 0.0006% means about as much as Sagan’s billions and billions – nothing, in other words. But, here I go again…

Not an epidemiologist, just a numbers guy – and the numbers guy wants to know:

100 Italian doctors died – how many fell into the elderly/preexisting condition group? So far, about 95% of deaths fall into one or the other or both categories. So, if anything like 95% of the doctors fell into that group, it would be tragic, of course, but tell us nothing new about the virus. If, on the other hand, the dead were predominantly younger, healthier doctors, that would tell us something – what, exactly, isn’t so obvious. Perhaps extended exposure under nasty conditions is to be avoided? We didn’t already know that? Seriously, what would it tell us?

All those younger people dying, the ones that make the news – perspective: about 5% of all deaths so far have not happened to people who are elderly, sick, or both. That would be about 1,900 deaths in the US so far. While, again, tragic, it’s a little over half of the annual total of drownings in backyard pools, or 75% of annual motorcycle deaths. And those deaths happen year after year, adding up to truly appalling numbers over the decades. Somehow, we have come to accept the trade off – backyard pools and motorcycles are fun, so we accept these death totals, even though banning backyard pools and motorcycles would save more people’s lives in one year (theoretically) than the number of otherwise healthy people who are dying of COVID 19.

But healthy people in low-or no-outbreak areas going to work, going to the park or beach, celebrating a birthday with friends, etc. – those activities are not important enough, across a population of 330M, to risk an increased chance of death, so far, of under 0.0006%?

Meanwhile, 250,000 people die each year from medical errors – third leading cause of death in the US. So we could, theoretically again, save more lives by reducing medical errors by 1% than the number of healthy people we’ll lose to COVID 19.

Finally, all signs so far point to massive rates of infection already, with huge numbers of people infected, just with no or minor symptoms to show for it. A random sample of people in England found nearly 1/3 had antibodies to COVID 19 in their blood. If this is a representative sample, it suggests around 23M English people have already caught the virus. Two things fall out from this: that efforts to contain the virus have already failed, even as the number of cases and deaths are falling; and, eventually, assuming having COVID 19 antibodies doesn’t protect you from all other causes of death, 1/3 of all deaths in England will be attributed to COVID 19, as all deaths where the virus is present or suspected to be present are now required under English rules to be classified as COVID 19 deaths.

Free Scandianvian archive prints -Social life in the19th century

The Swedish doctor reference yesterday says at least half the populations of Sweden and Britain have likely been infected already. If this carried over to the US, and we were to follow the British rules as New York already is. we’ll end up with that million COVID 19 deaths by the end of the year after all. It just won’t mean what any sane person means by ‘died from COVID 19.’

As I harp on here: it is important to know what you are counting.

Author: Joseph Moore

Enough with the smarty-pants Dante quote. Just some opinionated blogger dude.

5 thoughts on “I Hate Posting on This Stuff…”

  1. I’m still trying to find any real evidence we’re “following the British rule”. I’m going to copypasta a guy on Facebook I know but I’m literally just copying his stats so it should be fine:

    “In the 30 days ending on April 4, official COVID-19 deaths in New York, NY totaled 3,350. The above-average number of deaths in NYC for that period is 5,330. A surplus of 1,980 deaths is at least a dozen standard deviations above normal. From this information, we can conclude that a net undercount is hundreds of times more likely than a net overcount. ”

    There’s an obvious issue here in that this ignores deaths that occur as a result of the emphasis being put on corona in the medical system, but that was the smartest copypasta I’ve seen in response.

    Even beside this – the closest I’ve seen to proof anyone is “following the British rule” is the CDC saying they’re not assuming pneumonia deaths to be corona deaths.

    Which is a big deal but not the same thing.

    What I’m saying is, I’m not really sure if we’ve changed our corona reporting criteria or not.

    1. New York City’s response to a ten times increase in folks dying at home when they stopped allowing anybody who couldn’t be revived on site to be taken to the hospital suggests that they are going above and beyond the UK rule:

    2. As for evidence of counting anybody who dies with teh virus as dying OF the virus, is this sufficient evidence?
      … according to Birx.

      “Right now, we’re still recording it, and the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to mark it as COVID-19 infection, the intent is, right now — if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” she said.


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